Urban planning thrives on informed decision-making. However, the increasing influence of game theory—a branch of mathematics that studies strategic interactions—can be a recipe for disaster in the messy world of governance. While game theory offers insights in some areas, relying largely on its models for urban planning can lead to policies that neglect a community’s character—and the well-being of its residents. As a mediator seeking a win-win result (not a zero-sum one), I hope our leaders will avoid using game theory in town planning.
My concern arises from reading Kelly Clancy’s book, “Playing with Reality: How Games Have Shaped Our World.” Clancy critiques the tendency to view social systems through the narrow lens of game theory. These models, designed for scenarios with well-defined goals and perfect information, often fail to capture the realities of human behavior and community dynamics.
Game theory simplifies human behavior into a set of calculated choices. Players have clear goals and perfect information, and they always act in self-interest. However, real-world decision-making rarely aligns with these assumptions. People have diverse (and often conflicting) priorities. Information is incomplete and evolving. Furthermore, cooperation and altruism are crucial aspects of any thriving community, defying the logic of game theory.
Clancy warns against the ‘hubris of control’
Los Gatos residents value community cohesion, environmental sustainability and a high quality of life. Game theory struggles to quantify these values, leading to models that prioritize quantifiable metrics like profit or efficiency—at the expense of long-term well-being.
Clancy warns against the “hubris of control” inherent in some game-theoretic applications. Cities are not static entities that can be perfectly modeled and manipulated. Adherence to a game-theoretic model can stifle organic development and adaptation, leading to inflexible and outdated policies.
In Los Gatos’ 2040 General Plan, I see evidence that game theory has been applied in a variety of ways.
- Focus on Density and Efficiency—The plan proposes concentrating new housing development in “Community Growth Districts” with mixed-use and higher-density projects. This could be seen as a strategic move to maximize housing units within limited space (a core game theory concept). However, critics argue it prioritizes efficiency over resident concerns about character changes or increased traffic.
- Zero-Sum Housing Approach?—The plan faced controversy for elements focused on land use and community design. This back-and-forth could be interpreted as a zero-sum game, with residents and the Council acting as opposing players with incompatible goals.
- Limited Consideration of Long-Term Sustainability—While the plan mentions sustainability goals, some might argue a game-theoretic approach focuses on short-term solutions (e.g. immediate housing needs) overshadowing concerns like environmental sustainability or long-term infrastructure needs.
urban planning should consider the long-term sustainability and resilience of the town
It is important to avoid application of the game theory approach in addressing other Los Gatos problems. Take traffic flow. Game theory models can optimize traffic light timings based on historical data. However, these models can be disrupted by unforeseen events like accidents, construction or beach traffic. Additionally, they might not account for the influence of new technologies like ride-sharing apps or autonomous vehicles. This can lead to strategies that are inflexible and fail to adapt to real-world conditions.
Similar limitations exist in modeling other aspects of urban planning. Gentrification models might predict economic benefits from new developments, neglecting the displacement of residents or the impact on businesses. Parking fee models might aim to discourage car use but could fail to consider the needs of residents without access to reliable public transportation or the impact on local businesses.
Here’s a holistic approach that prioritizes the well-being of Los Gatos’ residents and the town’s long-term sustainability, and that moves beyond game theory:
- Continued engagement with residents allows policymakers to understand the needs and priorities of the community, foster a sense of ownership and ensure policies reflecting the values of Los Gatos residents.
- Urban planning should consider the long-term sustainability and resilience of the town, moving beyond short-term wins and losses. This requires considering environmental impacts, economic stability and social equity.
- Recognizing the inherent complexities of urban systems, an approach that allows for adjustments based on real-world outcomes, is crucial. Monitoring and evaluating policies, to allow for course corrections where necessary, becomes critical.
Game theory offers valuable tools, but our town’s urban planning should not be a zero-sum game. By continually embracing public participation, long-term thinking and adaptive management, Los Gatos can have a people-centered approach to planning that fosters a vibrant and resilient community.
